麦肯锡：2024 年主要并购趋势(英文 136 页)

2024年会开启并购的光明新时代吗？许多交易撮合者预计到可能出现的拐点，正在为来年的激增和新的市场需求做准备。

Contents

Industry sector updates and emerging trends

Chemicals: Success through timely, tailored action 16

As chemical companies work to break out of two-plus years of underperformance in total shareholder returns, M&A could play a major role in jump-starting higher rates of growth. We describe recent drivers of chemical deals, including entering consumer goods sectors and new geographies, or improving sustainability. Execution mandates include tailoring the integration plan to maximize value, ensuring operational readiness on day one, and protecting and nurturing vital talent.

TMT: Thoughtful M&A strategies are key to growth 28

While the value of deals in the technology, media, and telecommunications industries fell last  year, many players continued to pursue deals to offset investment costs and grow revenues.  Amid indications of a resurgence in activity, we argue that the most successful players will be  precise in ensuring that their deals and execution efforts align with their corporate strategies.

Life sciences M&A shows new signs of life 38

After deal value in life sciences peaked in 2021 and plummeted as the pandemic ended,  dealmaking in the sector revived in 2023. Acquiring pre-commercial biotech assets to fuel  growth renewed deal success for pharmaceutical companies. Managing the portfolio to improve  profitability provided the key for medical technology companies. The current year promises to be  an active one for deals across the sector.

Rebound of financial services M&A: Focus on growth and capabilities 48

Higher interest rates boosted banking profits in 2023, but many of the world’s banks still  struggled to deliver returns above the cost of equity. The growing divide between the industry’s  outperformers and others suggests that dealmaking will maintain or gain momentum in 2024,  including divestments, carve-outs, geographic exits, and rescues—in addition to acquisitions  designed to build scale, gain new capabilities, and drive growth.

Consumer goods: A changing landscape for successful M&A 58

 Shifting macroeconomics in recent years prompted many consumer goods companies to  change their M&A strategies—from large acquisitions in core businesses to smaller deals for  high-growth companies, and then back again to the core. Looking ahead, winners will look for  new ways to generate value, no matter what they buy. Some companies will take more time  to strengthen their targets with new skills or funding. They will also look at new integration  strategies, sometimes delaying or forgoing full integration.

The shifting sands of M&A in transportation and logistics 72

Powerful forces are transforming the transportation and logistics industry and shaping new  investment priorities for 2024 and beyond. Leading investors are sitting on a war chest of funds  and are ready to spend once the market picture clears, valuations embrace fairer multiples,  and perspectives on how to best create value solidify. Would-be dealmakers should lay the groundwork for investment now.

Dealmaking in 2024: Getting it right

The portfolio management imperative and its M&A implications 82

The pandemic brought record levels of M&A activity. But a more volatile environment demands  greater attention to portfolio management: selecting the right playing fields and managing  company assets more tightly. We urge companies to take portfolio management very seriously—  which means deciding where to play and building the capabilities required to win.  

Creating value from green M&A 92  

Across industries, companies increasingly see sustainability-linked deals as a way to stimulate  growth and improve operations while raising their environmental, social, and governance (ESG)  profiles. We note that the best-performing deals incorporate a tailored deal rationale that drives  revenue synergies, retains and develops top talent, and aligns on a common mission and culture.

Leading through uncertainty: Navigating delays in M&A deals 100

Over the past two years, unplanned delays have plagued 30 percent of major acquisitions—  stalling deals for six months on average. To avoid depleting value, momentum, and morale,  dealmakers need to anticipate delays and develop contingency plans.

The culture compass: Using early insights to guide integration planning 108

Despite all the shifts affecting M&A markets, some imperatives remain unchanged. Culture has  always been a key determinant of M&A success. Its importance argues for thinking about culture  at every stage of the integration effort, starting well before launching integration planning, and  using early insights into the cultures of both companies to shape the integration.

When a transaction forges a transformation 114

As central bankers work to combat high inflation, dealmakers have moved from near-zero cost  of capital to an environment where the cost of capital has become a real factor. Accordingly,  the most successful acquirers are looking beyond combinational synergies to achieve true  performance transformation through M&A.

Spotlight on Asia

Creating value with M&A in Asia’s diverse marketplaces 122

The Asia-Pacific region continued to account for a quarter of global deal activity in 2023. Greater  China saw less activity for the fourth consecutive year, while dealmaking in Australia and New  Zealand held steady, and activity in Japan climbed. Seizing opportunities in this diverse market  requires a nuanced grasp of local cultures and business practices.

目录

行业板块更新和新兴趋势

化学品：通过及时、定制的行动实现成功  16

随着化工公司努力摆脱总股东回报连续两年不佳的表现，并购可能在推动更高增长率方面发挥重要作用。我们描述了近期化工交易的驱动因素，包括进入消费品行业和新地区，或改善可持续性。执行任务包括定制整合计划以最大限度地创造价值，确保第一天业务准备就绪，以及保护和培养重要人才。

TMT：深思熟虑的并购战略是增长的关键  28

尽管去年科技、媒体和电信行业交易价值下跌，许多参与者仍继续寻求交易以抵消投资成本和增加收入。在活动复苏迹象的背景下，我们认为最成功的参与者将精确地确保其交易和执行工作与他们的公司战略保持一致。

生命科学并购展现复苏迹象  38

2021年生命科学交易价值达到峰值，随着疫情结束而暴跌，2023年该行业的并购活动再次复苏。制药公司收购商业化前生物技术资产以推动增长，重新获得了交易成功。医疗科技公司通过管理投资组合提高盈利能力，成为关键。今年有望成为该行业交易活跃的一年。

金融服务并购反弹：关注增长和能力  48

2023年利率上升提振了银行利润，但许多世界银行仍难以实现高于股权成本的回报。行业表现优异者与其他公司之间的差距越来越大，这表明并购将在2024年保持或增强势头，包括剥离、拆分、地域退出和拯救——以及旨在扩大规模、获得新能力和推动增长的收购。

消费品：成功并购不断变化的格局  58

近年来不断变化的宏观经济促使许多消费品公司改变了其并购战略——从大型核心业务收购转向小型高增长公司收购，然后再回到核心业务。展望未来，无论买什么，赢家都将寻找新的创造价值方式。一些公司将花更多时间用新的技能或资金加强其目标公司。他们还将研究新的整合策略，有时会延迟或放弃全面整合。

交通物流并购的沙丘变迁  72

强大的力量正在改变交通和物流行业，并为2024年及以后塑造新的投资重点。领先投资者手握大量资金，一旦市场形势明朗、估值达到更公平的倍数，以及最佳创造价值方式的观点得到巩固，他们就准备出手。潜在的交易促成者应该从现在开始为投资奠定基础。

2024年并购：做对事 

投资组合管理的必要性和其对并购的影响  82

疫情带来了创纪录的并购活动水平。但更不稳定的环境需要更多地关注投资组合管理：选择正确的竞技场并更严格地管理公司资产。我们敦促公司认真对待投资组合管理，这意味着要决定在哪玩以及构建赢得胜利所需的能力。

从绿色并购中创造价值  92

在各行各业，公司越来越多地将与可持续性相关的交易视为刺激增长、改善运营以及提升其环境、社会和治理 (ESG) 形象的一种方式。我们注意到，表现最佳的交易会纳入定制交易理由，从而推动收入协同效应，保留和发展顶尖人才，并就共同使命和文化达成一致。

在不确定性中引领：驾驭并购交易延迟  100

在过去两年中，计划外的延迟困扰了 30% 的重大收购——平均使交易停滞了六个月。为了避免价值、势头和士气受损，交易促成者需要预见延迟并制定应急计划。

文化指南针：使用早期洞察力指导整合规划  108

尽管所有影响并购市场的转变，一些必要条件仍然保持不变。文化一直是并购成功的关键因素。其重要性要求在整合工作的每个阶段都要考虑文化，从启动整合规划之前开始，并利用对双方公司文化的早期洞察力来塑造整合。

当交易锻造转型时  114

随着央行努力抗击高通胀，交易促成者已经从近乎零的资本成本环境走向成本成为真正因素的环境。因此，最成功的收购者正在超越组合协同效应，通过并购实现真正的业绩转型。

亚洲聚焦 

利用并购在亚洲多元化市场创造价值 122

亚太地区在2023年仍占全球交易活动的四分之一。大中华地区连续第四年交易活动较少，而澳大利亚和新西兰的交易保持稳定，日本的交易活动有所增加。抓住这个多元化市场的机会需要对当地文化和商业惯例有细致的了解。

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