德意志银行：涌入的难民是德国一个机会(英文 23 页)

由于冲突不断增加的结果，六千万世界各地的人逃离自己家园。仅仅目前已进入第五个年头叙利亚的战争已经引发约1150万叙利亚人被迫离开自己家园，其中4百万人已逃往其他国家。由于一般最初的难民逃往周边国家，经济欠发达的国家最终通过2014年年底接纳约85％难民。

在过去的一年半的时间里，越来越多的难民，以及从巴尔干寻求庇护者试图进入欧盟旅程。难民的涌入已发现欧盟体系中的寻求庇护登记制度存在严重缺陷。预计不会很快达成对相关协议来解决这个问题。

涌入难民已经造成德国净移民到一百多万的创纪录水平。在经合组织国家，这一趋势可能使德国超过美国成为首要目的地移民国家。从目前来看，德国对难民是具有极强吸引力。其结果是，德国面临一系列困境和巨大的成本 - 整合难民任务和劳动力市场冲击。

难民也是对劳动力的日益短缺和较低的结构性增长的威胁和人口老龄化国家的一个机会。如果没有移民，德国的经济增长预计将在未来十年内从目前的1.5％左右，下降到平均每年只有0.5％。对社会保障制度的稳定性，尤其是养老保险制度也将是个考验。

整合难民的艰巨任务，必须被看作是对未来的投资。这些难民都是年轻人;其中未满18岁的份额为30％。意味着更好的资格和更高比例低技能工人的相对高比例的人员进入劳动力市场。除了向难民提供住房和医疗服务，目前迫切需要提供语言课程，和一些能够培训的学校和其他教育培训机构。

作为一个双赢的方案的一部分，成功的整合提供了德国以巩固其作为欧洲经济强国的地位的机会。德国作为一个移民吸引力国家将受益非浅。更重要的是，进行必要的变化原有供德国社会保守的理念，给未来几十年了提供新的动力。净移民的持续高位将扭转长期以来人口老龄化所带来的趋势和经济增长率的下降。而且取而代之的是，移民可以带来未来10-15年1%逆势增长，这样也有利于社会发展。

As a result of a growing list of conflicts, more than 60 million people worldwide have fled their homes. The war in Syria alone, now in its fifth year, has triggered a mass exodus of around 11.5 million Syrians, four million of whom have fled to other countries. Since refugees initially flee to bordering countries as a general rule, economically less developed countries ended up taking in some 85% of the refugees through the end of 2014.  

For the past one and a half years an increasing number of refugees as well as asylum seekers from the Balkans have attempted the difficult (onward) journey to the EU. The influx of refugees has uncovered serious flaws in the EU system for registering and taking in asylum seekers. An agreement on an alternative distribution procedure is not expected to be reached any time soon. 

The influx of refugees has raised net immigration to Germany to the record level of more than one million. Among the OECD countries, this trend could put Germany ahead of the United States, traditionally the No. 1 destination country for migrants. For the time being, Germany is likely to remain a magnet for refugees. As a result, the country faces the difficult − and costly − task of integrating the refugees and absorbing the supply shock to the labour market.  

The refugees represent an opportunity for rejuvenating an ageing population in Germany, where there is a growing scarcity of labour and the threat of lower structural growth. Without immigration, the country’s economic growth is predicted to drop in the next ten years from its current average of around 1.5% to just 0.5% annually. The stability of the social security systems, especially the pay-as-you-go pension system, would be put to the test.  

The Herculean task of integrating the refugees must be seen as an investment in the future. The refugees are young; the share of those who are younger than 18 years old is 30%. The qualification profile may be U-shaped, meaning relatively high percentages of better qualified and less qualified workers. In addition to providing the refugees with housing and healthcare services, there is an urgent need to provide language classes and to make capacities in schools and other educational and training institutions available.  

As part of a win-win scenario, successful integration offers Germany the opportunity to consolidate its position as Europe’s economic powerhouse. Germany’s appeal as a country of immigration stands to benefit greatly. And more importantly, the necessary changes have the potential to provide German society, in which the preservation of the status quo has become a Leitmotiv, with new momentum for the decades ahead. A sustained high level of net immigration will go a long way towards attenuating the decline of the trend growth rate brought on by an ageing population. Instead of moving closer to stagnation, the trend growth could still amount to 1% in ten to 15 years as well, which would also benefit social systems. 

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